The Academy Awards aren’t simply Hollywood’s largest evening. They’re the grand finale of an awards season formed as a lot by social media buzz as by critic opinions. From red-carpet trend to acceptance speech soundbites, the dialog on-line usually reveals extra about who would possibly win than the pundits do.
However can social media chatter truly predict Oscar winners? It wouldn’t be the primary time. Final 12 months, most of the largest frontrunners, like Oppenheimer, turned their on-line reputation into golden statues — although not each film can profit from a viral genre-bending portmanteau.
This 12 months, we’re seeing comparable patterns emerge throughout classes, with some clear favorites and some potential upsets.
To seek out out who would possibly take house the gold, we used Hootsuite Social Listening to trace the web buzz, sentiment, and engagement round this 12 months’s nominees. The outcomes? Let’s simply say some races are tighter than a Greatest Enhancing montage.
Who’s trending for all the suitable causes? Who’s going through backlash that might value them votes? Let’s break down the 2025 Oscar predictions in keeping with social media.
Psstt: Now that the Oscars are over, questioning how our predictions stacked up? Hold scrolling to seek out out.
Key phrases
Outcomes: The full variety of particular person social media posts mentioning a particular key phrase. A number of mentions inside one submit rely as a single outcome.
Engagement: The variety of interactions (likes, feedback, shares) a submit receives, indicating how a lot consideration a dialog is producing.
Sentiment: A measure of how constructive or unfavorable the dialog round a subject is.
Internet sentiment: The distinction between constructive and unfavorable sentiment. A constructive rating means favorable mentions outweigh unfavorable ones, whereas a unfavorable rating suggests the other.
Potential attain: The estimated variety of customers who might see a submit, based mostly on the poster’s follower rely and engagement ranges.
Need to take a look at the remainder of our social listening sequence? We’ve additionally monitored on-line sentiment earlier than the U.S. election, measured the affect of the Taylor Swift Impact, and predicted this 12 months’s Grammy winners. We’re fairly good at this!
Greatest Supporting Actress: Did Ariana give a Depraved-ly good efficiency?
Within the race for Greatest Supporting Actress, Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldaña are main the dialog.
Whereas Grande’s nomination for her function in Depraved generated vital buzz, Saldaña’s flip in Emilia Pérez has resulted in a surge in social mentions that has made this class extra aggressive than anticipated.
And whereas the social outcomes present Grande far outpacing Saldaña all year long, we will’t overlook that Grande boasts a large built-in fanbase.
Since a lot of Grande’s on-line reputation stems from her music, magnificence manufacturers, and popular culture persona, reasonably than her performing efficiency, we ran a separate search to filter out these outcomes.
The filtered outcomes reveal a a lot tighter race — and it’s one which Saldaña seems to be profitable.
The one potential pitfall for Saldaña? Her internet sentiment rating dipped into the negatives as she confronted backlash following an argument involving co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, although it’s since rebounded into constructive territory.
Greatest Supporting Actress in keeping with social media: Zoe Saldaña (907k whole mentions)
Runner up: Ariana Grande
Whereas Grande is head and shoulders above all different nominees when it comes to her social media presence, we’re fairly positive a lot of that dialog may be attributed to her massive current following. The Arianators could also be legion, however they don’t essentially signify the voting members of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Science.
Saldaña’s spike, alternatively, is extra organically tied to her Oscar-nominated function and up to date press protection. And along with her sentiment now again within the positives, we’re selecting Saldaña as our favourite to win Greatest Supporting Actress.
Greatest Supporting Actress winner: Zoe Saldaña
Our prediction was spot on! Saldaña’s critically acclaimed efficiency and late-stage awards push secured her the win. Social media received this one proper!
#1 Straightforward Social Listening
Model mentions, trending matters, and sentiment at your fingertips. Improve your social technique with the insights that matter.
Begin free 30-day trial
Greatest Supporting Actor: Will the eldest boy prevail?
The race for Greatest Supporting Actor is as tight as…properly, a Succession boardroom showdown.
Proper now, Kieran Culkin, Jeremy Robust, and Edward Norton are dominating social conversations. Culkin seems to be within the lead, although, because of his standout efficiency in A Actual Ache (and, let’s be trustworthy, his charmingly chaotic press appearances in assist of the movie).
Robust has earned loads of constructive press, whereas Norton’s veteran standing retains him within the dialog. Nonetheless, Culkin’s constant lead in each sentiment and visibility makes his win really feel inevitable.
That’s as a result of Culkin’s sustained momentum (he’s now received a number of main awards for the function, together with a Golden Globe, a BAFTA, and a SAG) has solely amplified the dialog, conserving him top-of-mind amongst followers and Oscar voters alike.
With robust constructive sentiment on his aspect, we’re betting Culkin continues his profitable streak.
Greatest Supporting Actor in keeping with social media: Kieran Culkin (300k whole mentions)
Runner up: Edward Norton
Culkin’s efficiency, media presence, and constructive sentiment give him the sting. Robust and Norton might have gained floor, however Culkin’s constant reputation makes him the seemingly winner.
Greatest Supporting Actor winner: Kieran Culkin
No surprises right here both — social media known as it! Culkin’s simple momentum carried him all the best way to his first Academy Award.
Greatest Actress: Has the stability of controversy and affect been revered?
If there’s one class the place Oscar buzz feels as dramatic because the performances themselves, it’s Greatest Actress.
This 12 months, Fernanda Torres, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Demi Moore have dominated the dialog — however not all the time for the suitable causes.
Whereas Torres, nominated for I’m Nonetheless Right here, surged after her Golden Globe win, Gascón’s nomination has been clouded by controversy, together with resurfaced posts on X and rumors of a behind-the-scenes conflict with Torres.
That drama fueled a spike in mentions, however not all press is sweet press: Gascón’s internet sentiment rating plummeted to -80 in the course of the peak of the backlash.
Then again, Demi Moore, nominated for her (*ahem*) transformative efficiency in The Substance, has maintained a gradual social presence for greater than six months, lengthy after the movie’s premiere.
In contrast to her rivals, Moore’s buzz has been constant and largely constructive, making her a robust contender.
The wildcard right here? Each Torres and Moore dipped into the negatives in the course of the top of awards season discourse however have since rebounded to the positives, whereas Gascón stays underwater.
So who takes the win? Whereas Moore’s year-long visibility might sway voters, Torres’ current surge — proper in the course of the Oscar voting window — makes her the present frontrunner.
Greatest Actress in keeping with social media: Fernanda Torres (657k whole mentions)
Runner up: Demi Moore
Torres leads in each quantity and sentiment, with a formidable internet sentiment rating of 78. The timing of her buzz, peaking proper as Oscar ballots are being forged, provides her the sting. Regardless of Moore’s current win on the SAG Awards, she might have merely peaked too early.
Greatest Actress winner: Mikey Madison (538k whole mentions)
Social media didn’t see this one coming! Anora swept the evening, and Madison’s breakout efficiency secured her the win over extra established names like Moore and Torres. A real underdog victory, proving that Oscar momentum can construct quick, even outdoors the web buzz.
Greatest Actor: Is it little Timmy’s time to shine?
If Oscar season had a primary character, it will undoubtedly be Timothée Chalamet.
From his critically acclaimed efficiency in A Full Unknown to his seemingly infinite parade of viral moments, Chalamet has been in every single place, and the social media dialog displays it.
However whereas Chalamet has been in each headline, he’s not the one nominee commanding consideration. Adrien Brody, Sebastian Stan, and Colman Domingo have all seen spikes in social mentions, significantly after key wins and press excursions.
Stan, specifically, noticed a notable surge following the discharge of The Apprentice, although the polarizing nature of his function as Donald Trump seems to have harm his sentiment rating.
Brody was off to an ideal begin earlier than The Brutalist received in scorching water over its use of AI, however general sentiment in direction of him seems prefer it’s began to get better.
Truly, in relation to sentiment, not one of the nominees have escaped backlash — aside from Colman Domingo, whose comparatively decrease profile seems to have helped preserve the dialog impartial.
Greatest Actor in keeping with social media:: Timothée Chalamet (1.6m whole mentions)
Runner up: Adrien Brody
Chalamet’s star energy, media presence, and overwhelming quantity of buzz give him the sting on this class. Brody has held his personal in sentiment, however Chalamet’s capacity to remain top-of-mind — from movie premieres to viral social moments — makes him the seemingly winner.
Greatest Actor winner: Adrien Brody (791k whole mentions)
We have been shut, however social media received this one mistaken! Brody’s highly effective efficiency in The Brutalist earned him his second Oscar, greater than 20 years after his historic win for The Pianist. Brody’s emotional speech, relating warfare, oppression, and resilience, cemented this as one of many evening’s most shifting moments.
Greatest Image: The favored selection might not prevail
Our different predictions might have been comparatively simple, however that is the place it will get difficult.
Greatest Image may be exhausting to foretell, each due to the sheer variety of nominees (10!) and since most of the nominated movies have been solely lately launched to basic audiences.
Social listening information reveals Depraved outpacing each different nominee when it comes to general mentions, fueled by its viral TikTok moments, celebrity-packed premieres, and model partnerships.
From dance challenges to make-up collabs, it’s been greater than only a film — it’s been a cultural second.
However reputation doesn’t all the time equal positivity. Emilia Pérez additionally sparked loads of conversations, however they have been usually overshadowed by controversy surrounding its casting and cultural commentary.
Nickel Boys, based mostly on Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, quietly racked up reward throughout platforms, with persistently excessive sentiment scores and robust word-of-mouth suggestions.
It didn’t generate as many viral moments, however the dialog was overwhelmingly constructive.
Greatest Image in keeping with social media: Nickel Boys (171k whole mentions)
Runner up: Depraved
Whereas Depraved and Emilia Pérez have led the dialog, Nickel Boys takes the lead with stronger sentiment and significant goodwill — elements that always sway Academy voters within the closing stretch. It might have flown below the radar, however Nickel Boys has additionally managed to keep away from controversy.
Greatest Image winner: Anora (1.1m whole mentions)
Social media didn’t see Anora coming! The movie swept the Oscars, profitable 5 awards, together with Greatest Image, Greatest Actress, and Greatest Director. The indie triumph, praised for its uncooked storytelling and breakout performances, cemented its place in Oscar historical past — proving that generally, the most important winner isn’t all the time the loudest within the dialog.
Able to get into social listening? With Hootsuite, you’ve gotten model mentions, trending matters, and sentiment data at your fingertips. Begin enhancing your social technique with the insights that matter at present.
