Uncertainty over Agoa provides to a rising checklist of strained commerce relations between Africa and Washington D.C., since Trump 2.0 that has been marked by assist cuts, immigration crackdown, visa denials, and punitive commerce tariffs.
Agoa is a landmark commerce settlement that has been in operation for the final 25 years, permitting economies in Africa to ship items into the U.S. market obligation free.
The tip of Agoa might spell doom, shattering earnings streams and careers whereas throwing livelihoods into poverty.
As September thirtieth, 2025 winds down, policymakers throughout Africa are trying to find the wonderful print of a Trump White Home newest communique that signifies his administration is in assist of a one-year extension of the African Development and Alternative Act (Agoa).
For Africa, the commerce relation with Washington has been strained since Trump 2.0 with assist cuts, immigration crackdown, outright visa denials, punitive commerce tariffs and now Agoa, maybe the final leverage that noticed economies throughout the continent commerce with the U.S. is on the chopping board.
Donald Trump administration is but to announce its assist of extending Agoa, a landmark commerce settlement that has been in operation for the final 25 years, permitting economies in Africa to ship items into the U.S. market obligation free.
With this uncertainty, tons of of hundreds of staff in Kenya, South Africa, Lesotho are taking a look at gloomy future, unaware what the longer term holds. The tip of Agoa might spell doom, shattering earnings streams and careers whereas throwing livelihoods into poverty.
Jobs, livelihoods, economies on edge as Agoa ends
Final 12 months, Kenya shipped $470 million value of products into the U.S. through Agoa, an endeavor that helps about 66,000 direct jobs, primarily girls who’re employed in clothes factories unfold throughout Export Processing Zones across the capital Nairobi. As uncertainty grips the sector, throughout Africa, the connection between international locations and the U.S. have strained with Trump’s introduction of tariffs as excessive as 30 per cent for Botswana and 10 per cent for Kenya.
In keeping with the United Nations Commerce and Improvement (UNCTAD), sudden freeze of Agoa submit September thirtieth might additional worsen market entry to the U.S. for over 31 international locations in Africa, which in 2023 recorded about $10 billion in shipments to consumers in America.
Since 2000, sub-Saharan international locations have loved duty-free entry to the U.S. for an estimated 1,800 merchandise made within the continent. To this point, the continent’s most superior economic system, South Africa, is the most important exporter of products to the U.S. beneath the a long time outdated plan. With out Agoa, the economic system stares at hemorrhaging over 35,000 jobs within the agribusiness worth chain alone, whereas Madagascar will grapple with 47 % obligation on U.S. sure vanilla and textile exports.
Agoa key driver of U.S. investments in Africa
Apart from clothes, African international locations have additionally been exporting fuels, and metals beneath Agoa, an initiative that has enhanced overseas direct funding by U.S. companies on African soil. For policymakers in Africa, the Trump administration has been displaying little regard to Agoa, particularly with the introduction of sweeping commerce tariffs in Could that noticed shipments into the U.S. appeal to elevated duties no matter preferential standing beneath Agoa treaty.
With the tip of the commerce treaty on September 30, many international locations will revert to assembly country-specific, sector-specific tariffs, additional compounding the affect, and probably lowering earnings for international locations on U.S. sure exports.
For Kenya, with out the commerce program attire exporters might see a close to triple rise in duties from 10 per cent to twenty-eight per cent, UNCTAD states, whereas Madagascar is more likely to begin paying double or 28 per cent in obligation on U.S. sure shipments.
“With out AGOA’s renewal, Africa’s export competitiveness within the US market might shortly erode at a time when competitors for various export markets intensifies globally. Accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Commerce Space might assist mitigate this case, however such a readjustment could be difficult and require appreciable time,” UNCTAD notes in an replace.
Learn additionally: AGOA’s Crossroads: The Way forward for US-Africa Commerce Relations
Diversification wanted to counter world turbulence
Lately, the African Union (AU) has been calling on nations throughout the continent to agency up their assist for the African Continental Free Commerce Space (AfCFTA), a commerce blueprint that would usher the zone of 1.3 billion individuals to financial independence within the face of world turbulence.
As Agoa wobbles, AfCFTA, a bloc that brings collectively 54 international locations, might now grow to be extra engaging proposition for policymakers because the continent explores various commerce routes. On the similar time, China, which continues to make inroads throughout Africa constructing key infrastructure is more likely to emerge as a most well-liked vacation spot for African items.
Within the wake of Donald Trump’s tariffs, Beijing abolished export obligation for as much as 33 African international locations, positioning itself as a worthy alternative over the U.S. Knowledge from Chinese language authorities reveals that commerce between China and Africa expanded by 4.8 per cent to $295 billion final 12 months.
Different sturdy gamers within the worldwide commerce ecosystem together with Japan, the UAE, Turkey, Russia, Malaysia, Brazil, are additionally strategically providing themselves as most well-liked options to international locations in Africa scouting for commerce avenues.
Learn additionally: The US Congress proposes extending Agoa to 2041, masking all African international locations
