Egyptian Professor of Geology claims its solely a matter of time earlier than Ethiopia’s GERD dam collapses when crammed to capability.
GERD was designed to carry 11 billion cubic meters, however its capability was elevated to 60 billion cubic meters – which raises many considerations, particularly since Ethiopia is a rustic liable to earthquakes, the scholar states
African’s reward GERD achievements on social media #ItsMyDam, #GERDisYourDam
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is liable to collapse, an Egyptian media outlet reported just lately. The ‘Egypt Unbiased’ quoted a Cairo College Professor of Geology and Water Sources Abbas Sharaky allegedly saying that “GERD was designed to carry 11 billion cubic meters, however its capability was elevated to 60 billion cubic meters – which raises many considerations, particularly since Ethiopia is a rustic liable to earthquakes.”
Within the article titled ‘Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is at its utmost restrict and dangers collapse,’ the professor added that; “Ethiopia comprises the most important variety of volcanoes behind the passage of the most important rift on the earth in Addis Ababa.” In line with him, although the mentioned rift is 500 kilometers away, “it’s going to probably impression the dam particularly if the earthquakes are significantly sturdy.”
With that warning, he harassed that Egypt has “categorically rejected Ethiopia’s unilateral insurance policies that violate the principles and rules of worldwide regulation, which represent a transparent violation of the Declaration of Rules Settlement and the Safety Council’s presidential assertion of September 15, 2021.”
He accused Ethiopia of “utilizing the negotiations as a canopy to extend reaching any answer,” however maintained that Egypt had what he described as “sincerest intentions.” The professor was referring to the over a decade-long failed talks between the 2 sides (and different nations utilizing the Nile waters). After hitting a stale finish, each nations turned to the UN, every accusing the opposite of intransigence.
Of their newest attraction, accusations and rebuttals on the UN (Sept 2024), Ethiopia known as on UN officers to “…pay attention to Egypt’s repeated risk to make use of pressure in opposition to Ethiopia.” Ethiopia requested the UN to warning Egypt in opposition to, “its aggressive strategy.”
This was in response to Egypt’s preliminary letter to the UN Safety Council during which it accused Ethiopia of “violating worldwide regulation by persevering with to fill the dam with out settlement from downstream nations.” Nevertheless, Ethiopia lashed again and described Egypt’s considerations as, “a litany of unfounded allegations.”
Ethiopia says it’s considerations of ‘threats of aggression’ by Egypt are evident within the latter’s most up-to-date navy ties with Somalia, which has its personal bone to choose with authorities in Addis Ababa.
Taking no probabilities, Ethiopia is reported to have elevated safety in and across the dam. BBC quotes its Kenya-based Horn of Africa safety analyst Rashid Abdi reporting that “Ethiopia is stepping up safety across the dam.”
The safety analysts says Ethiopia’s “defensive measures embody declaring the Benishangul-Gumuz area, the place the dam is positioned, a restricted airspace, and there are additionally studies that Ethiopia is placing up anti-aircraft batteries across the dam. It most likely fears reconnaissance flights by Egypt.”
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GERD: Is the specter of collapse actual?
The Egyptian scholar maintains that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was meant to carry 11 billion cubic meters, however is now capturing for 60 billion cubic meters; “which raises many considerations of collapse,” he warns.
He backs up his warning with a declare that Ethiopia comprises a lot of volcanoes, and seats on prime of the most important rift on the earth. In line with him, these elements coupled with potential earthquakes all level to a devastating potential collapse of the dam; however is the professor appropriate?
A number of different Egyptian consultants have asserted related claims, in 2023, the paper ‘Flood propagation modeling: Case research the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam failure’ was printed by the Alexandria Engineering Journal.The paper asserts: ‘Dams’ failure evaluation performs an important function within the growth of dam security planning and emergency motion.’
That mentioned, it claims; ‘ For the reason that Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been constructed, there have been many considerations about its security and its results on downstream nations in case of its failure.’
The paper goes forward and fashions the GERD breaking utilizing what the consultants name the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Heart’s River Evaluation System (HEC-RAS).
“Two dimensions mannequin beneath totally different failure situations was prompt. Furthermore, outflow hydrographs and flood inundation maps have been offered on account of dam breach. Lastly, it was concluded that, in case of catastrophic failure, stream depths might differ from 3 to 10 m in some residential areas, resembling Khartoum. Moreover, the water floor elevation might attain 184 m above msl (imply sea degree) in Lake Nasser in case of dam failure with a totally saved GERD reservoir,” warns the paper.
It goes on to warn that within the occasion of a collapse; “…the utmost stream would attain 325,928 m3/sec which is greater than 21.5 occasions the overall capability of the dam spillway.”
“From time immemorial, Egypt has feared the prospect of Ethiopia holding again the Nile waters and has perceived this chance as an existential danger,” explains Dale Whittington in his 2024 paper titled ‘Ought to Egypt be afraid of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? The implications of adversarial water coverage on the Blue Nile.’
“Nevertheless, there are not any analyses within the printed literature that quantify how a lot hurt Ethiopia may inflict on Egypt,” the author admits.
GERD energy manufacturing trials
Steve Floyd studies on ongoing energy technology trials on the GERD which began in 2022.
“The trials will produce 700 megawatts (MW) of electrical energy, however the dam will generate 5,150 MW as soon as crammed to capability. Such sustainable energy will show a boon for Ethiopia’s economic system, deliver U.N. Sustainable Improvement Objectives inside attain and profit the broader area,” he writes.
He additionally notes how standard the dam is amongst Africans; “With funding from civil servant donations, diaspora help and the sale of bonds to personal residents, the GERD has develop into an emblem of nationwide pleasure.”
The author factors out trending social media tags of the dam resembling hashtags like #ItsMyDam, #GERDisYourDam and #EthiopiaPrevails and the truth that “…individuals throughout Africa praised the milestone (energy technology trials) on social media.”
“The World Financial institution estimates that half of its inhabitants lacks common entry to electrical energy. Such considerable energy would assist Ethiopia obtain the U.N. Sustainable Improvement Objective for inexpensive, accessible vitality, and the dam may present surplus electrical energy to the broader area,” he writes.